Greg Oden finishing with authority in the pre-season.
Does a Trail Blazers preview column necessarily have to be posted prior to the start of the season? I hope not. The bulk of this was written during the NBA pre-season; however my schedule prevented its completion on time for the start of the season. It’s just as well since injuries, inconsistency, and a rotation currently in flux has rendered a few of my early thoughts nearly useless.
With this said, we jump into my (slightly edited) 2009-2010 Trail Blazers preview column…
The 2008-09 NBA season saw a return to the playoffs for the Trail Blazers and a rekindling in earnest of the phenomena of Blazermania. Cue an embarrassing and lackluster six game series against Houston and a stiff dose of reality and the team has been faced with two major questions. First, can they complete the leap from talented group on the rise to an established member of the NBA’s elite; and second, can the team overcome foul trouble, injury, and a changed composition to match last year’s production – a necessity in order for the answer to the first question to be yes.
Brandon Roy vaulted to the cusp of becoming a perennial all-star with his 22.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game. LaMarcus Aldridge repeated his strong performance from his sophomore campaign, though fell short of the breakout many felt was in store (statistically, his third year production was nearly identical to that of his second). Steve Blake emerged as a reliable long range threat, making 40% of his three point attempts, and Travis Outlaw continued his reliable, if not entirely confidence-inducing bench production. Greg Oden was the team’s enigma, mixing disappointment (injuries and foul problems) with flashes of genuine dominance (interior defense and offensive rebounding) and mystifying problems with footwork and offensive fundamentals. Fortunately, Joel Przybilla combined with Oden to form what was one of the most effective defensive center tandems in the league, even if “effective” wasn’t necessarily the word fans hoped would describe Oden.
Rookie Nicolas Batum stepped in to the injured Martell Webster’s starting role and provided something Webster had not in his previous three years – strong perimeter defense. Rookie guard Rudy Fernandez captured fans hearts with his hustle and flair for the dramatic (on more than one occasion I had flashes of a young Drazen Petrovic dancing before my eyes in the form of Rudy’s raised arms following a made three pointer).
Team leader Brandon Roy
In all, what was supposed to be a season of small steps became one of leaps, however hesitant they may have been. The team was able to claim the Northwest Division Co-Championship with a last game victory over Denver, then proceeded to turn in one of their worst performances of the season in game 1 of the playoff series against the Rockets. The fundamental question for 2010 is which team will show up to play this season – the eager young club which appeared on the verge of dominance in late April, or the inexperienced and hesitant team that only managed to accomplish ending Dikembe Mutombo’s career in their first playoff appearance?
Additions:
Trade/Draft - Victor Claver, F, Valencia (ACB) (1:22) – Claver is a promising, albeit young forward who has shown a strong shooting touch for a big man. His draft stock was hurt by a knee injury, however his early numbers in ACB have been solid (11.0/6.0/1.5 Assists). Claver was not signed and will remain in Spain for the foreseeable future. He is currently under contract with Valencia and joins what is becoming a very strong contingent of Blazers overseas holdings – along with Petteri Koponen and Joel Freeland.
Trade/Draft - Jeff Pendergraph, F, Arizona (2:31) – Pendergraph was selected by the Kings and acquired by the Blazers in the Sergio Rodriguez trade. He was effective in Summer League play averaging 10.8 points and 7.6 rebounds for Portland. He was signed by the Blazers but will miss most of the season recovering from surgery for a left hip impingement. He should be considered a project and likely will not see any meaningful minutes this season.
Draft - Dante Cunningham, F, Villanova (2:33) – Cunningham was selected by the Blazers in the second round of the draft and excelled in the Vegas Summer League where averaged 18.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. His game and physical build draw comparisons to Travis Outlaw, however he seems to have a more polished skill set (especially offensively) than did Outlaw at a similar point in his career. Cunningham is the only rookie on Portland’s active roster to start the season, but will only see minutes in garbage time. He too is a project, but would appear to have a very high ceiling.
Draft - Patrick Mills, G, Saint Mary’s (2:55) – Mills was a somewhat controversial addition to the Blazers’ final roster, as his signing represented the 15th and final roster spot and led directly to Portland native and former fan favorite Ime Udoka being waived in his attempt to return to the Blazers. This said, he is a very talented guard who has shown his chops in international play for his native Australia (scoring 14 points per game in the Beijing Olympics – including 20 against the US) and during an impressive 2007-08 freshman season at Saint Mary’s. He missed the bulk of his sophomore season after breaking in his hand at Gonzaga, returning only for the WCC tournament. Mills then suffered a stress fracture in his foot during practices ahead of the NBA Summer League and will likely miss the bulk of this season. His signing was largely the result of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement, which forced the Blazers to tender an offer to Mills or risk losing his draft rights. He will continue his recovery and should be seen as a low-risk investment that likely will not play this season.
Point Guard Andre Miller finishes during the pre-season
Free Agent - Andre Miller, PG, Philadelphia – Miller’s signing was seen by many as an afterthought following Hedo Turkoglu’s 11th hour spurning of the Blazers offer. (Many have compared Hedo’s bolt for Toronto to that of someone left at the alter – in reality, this was more like the groom saying “um, actually…” after the priest asks for objections.) Miller provides the potential for veteran leadership, the infusion of a run-first distributing point guard, an interior scorer and a dependable iron-man from a team that has had a series of nagging, persistent injuries over the last two years.
Free Agent - Juwan Howard, PF, Charlotte – Howard provides a veteran big man off of the Blazers’ bench and a last line of defense in the event of foul trouble or injury from Oden, Przybilla, Aldridge, or Outlaw – likely to be the forward/center rotation for Portland. He should be able to provide spurts of production when needed in the form of rebounding and short jumpers, but not much else. In 1990 dollars, he’s Wayne Cooper – today, he’s the last standing member of the Fab 5, and still chasing a ring.
Subtractions:
PG Sergio Rodriguez, (traded to Sacramento). Simply put, Sergio was not Nate McMillian’s guy. Beyond this, he failed to display any discernable improvement in two of his weakest areas of play – jump shooting and ball control. In extended minutes he showed flashes of being a serviceable point guard while lobbing perfect alley-oop passes to countryman Fernandez, but the guarantee of two assists per game does not generally secure a future in the league. In fact, his per 36 numbers were essentially level from his rookie season through the end of his third season. His trade netted Forward Jeff Pendergraph, who Sacramento chose #31 overall in the draft – an obvious drop in the stock of a player who was rumored to be garnering heavy trade interest for Kevin Pritchard just one season earlier.
Former Blazer Channing Frye
F Channing Frye, (Free Agent, Phoenix). Frye was caught in a numbers game in Portland from the moment he arrived. He showed an ability to get shots off in bunches when playing time was consistent, and even provided a spirited flurry of double-doubles when LaMarcus Aldridge missed the final weeks of the 2007-08 season, but this would be the highlight of his tenure in Portland. Frye made precious few of the mid-range jumpers he took while with the Blazers, an ominous sign for what was supposed to be his strength. His move to Phoenix will allow him to play in a wide-open style that will not call for post play as often as did the Blazers style. (Early returns for Phoenix have been quite positive – Frye is averaging double figures and is hitting on over 44% of his shots from 3 point range, already draining a career high 22 through the Suns’ first 8 games).
F Nicolas Batum, (Injury). Batum was lost for what will likely be the bulk of the 2010 season, if not the entire year after having shoulder surgery during the pre-season. His loss means the Blazers will not have to resolve their logjam at small forward for the foreseeable future - perhaps the only positive to come out of the situation.
Outlook:
I see this team making a modest improvement in the standings over last season, finishing with a 56-26 record, alone atop the Northwest Division, and the #3 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. To say that the team’s fortunes for 2010 rest on the shoulders of Greg Oden is not an understatement. Given the current composition of the team, the only area where there appears to be room for significant improvement in both statistics and efficiency is the center position. Early returns are showing that Oden in fact has improved significantly in his areas of biggest concern – footwork, ball handling, and low-post offense; however he continues to show an uncanny ability to pick up fouls. This is becoming mantra in Portland, but as long as Oden can stay on the floor, he can dominate a game.
Will Fernandez remain happy with his role, should the wins fail to materialize?
One potential problem for this team is chemistry – there simply are not enough minutes or shots available to keep everyone happy. I do not expect Fernandez to remain happy with his role while sharing second unit shots with Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw. To keep everyone happy, Nate McMillan will need to access every bit of diplomacy in his coaching repertoire, will need to hope that winning will soothe over any remaining problems.
Provided Roy matches or approaches his production from last season, Aldridge shows even modest improvement, and Miller and Blake can steady the team’s throttle while providing efficient point guard play, this team should reach the second round of the playoffs at a minimum. If these things happen, and Oden harnesses even 70% of his talent (and approaches 30 minutes per game) this could easily be a one of the participants in the Western Conference finals.
