Greg Oden
When we left off, I had just relayed a June forecast message to a fellow Blazers fan (Peter) who had been traveling the world.
Seeing as we are now a quarter of the way through the Blazers’ season (26.8% to be precise) I felt it was time to go back and look at a few of the things I said at that time while reviewing what has happened to date with Portland’s only major league sports franchise.
1. The record to date
Through 22 games, the Blazers record rests at 15-7, good for a winning percentage of .682 and first place by a half game in front of the Denver Nuggets in the Northwest Division. For those mathemagicians among us, that is on pace for 55 wins - the exact number I predicted in June. Score one for Pratt. Actually, rounding up, it would be good for 56, but I like being right. What is particularly impressive about the team’s early season success is that it has come while the Blazers have played 15 games on the road, including two 5-game road trips. With a home stand coming in late December, I would not expect the pace to slow.
2. The rookies
With nearly all eyes squarely set upon him, Greg Oden has shown solid, if not spectacular play. Despite suffering a sprained foot in his first minute of game time in the season opener versus the Lakers, and while averaging 22 minutes a game, he has racked up seven double-doubles and led the team in rebounding nine times. This said, there is clearly a lot of room for improvement, particularly on the offensive end. He has shown a tendency to bring the ball low upon receiving a pass, allowing defenders an opportunity to make a swipe at it, or prepare for a block. He has not finished especially well, and his footwork leaves a lot to be desired. That said, he has already shown improvement in these areas, and I would expect improvement to continue throughout the season as he gets more game experience. His defensive game is already very good, approaching elite status. He is almost a lock for two blocks a game in his limited minutes, and his very presence forces teams to alter their play on both sides of the ball. I did not comment on my expectations for final numbers from Greg for the season, but I would expect his numbers to climb with his minutes, likely finishing the season averaging 10-11 PPG, 8-9 RPG, and 2 BPG. Not rookie of the year numbers, but good for All-Rookie First Team. Basically, he’s raw - which everyone knew coming out of the 2007 Draft - then he lost an entire season before really being able to work on his game. Bottom line, this kid is special, and it’s clear that he will be much better in the coming years than he is now - and he’s pretty damn good now.
Rudy Fernandez
Rudy Fernandez has been everything that his Spanish League play indicated he could be. He has shown a deadly outside shot, a level of flash and hard-nosed play that had been missing from the Blazers lineup, and the ability to explode for 15 off the bench any night, as has happened seven times to date. Like Oden, his 48 minute numbers are fantastic - 20 PPG, to be exact, but barring injury, I do not see him starting this season due to the fact that the team has continued to show an inability to play consistently without a true point guard in the lineup, even with Brandon Roy running the show.
Nicolas Batum has been the biggest surprise - I originally thought he would stay in Europe, or at best would spend significant portions of the season in the NBDL - and this was before his horrid showing in the Las Vegas Summer League. His development and emergence in the pre-season was a revelation, and is going to make the rotation tricky once Martell Webster fully returns from injury. Batum has been the starting small forward for all but three games this season, showing an uncanny ability to find the ball - steals, broken passes, blocks, rebounds - you name it, he has been involved. On the offensive side, he has shown a surprisingly consistent mid and long-range shot and the ability to drive to the hoop or finish on a breakaway. I would put the overall level of his play on par with where Travis Outlaw was in his third year, with his defense being superior to Outlaw right now. Comparisons are drawn between Batum and Tayshaun Prince of the Detroit Pistons, both for physical resemblance and style of play - I think those are premature (obviously) but with more minutes (which won’t be happening - at least not this season) it is easy to see his numbers approaching Prince’s.
Jerryd Bayliss has been a non-factor, which is a far cry from my prediction that he could overtake Steve Blake as a starter during the season. Blake’s strong play (career highs across the board) combined with the reemergence and consistent performance of Sergio Rodriguez has sat Bayliss on the bench for all but eight of Portland’s games. When he has played his minutes have come mostly during garbage time, and apart from a productive seven minute stretch at Boston this week, his play has been ordinary - what you’d expect from garbage minutes. He has the ability to score quickly, especially on drives to the basket - minutes will be hard to come by, so I would like to see coach Nate McMillan use Bayliss as a spark plug in situations such as the game at Boston where quick points may be needed to snap the team out of a funk, or possibly when nothing else is working. But who am I to argue with the way minutes are doled out on a 15-7 team?
3. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge
Thanks must be given to Kevin McHale and John Paxson for trading Roy and Aldridge, respectively, to Portland during the 2006 NBA Draft. Roy has picked up where his All-Star performance last year left off, leaving little doubt that Blazers fans are witnessing the emergence of a super star. Aldridge, meanwhile, has had an inconsistent, but overall strong start to the season. He seems to have rebounded from a shooting slump that struck in late November, and since then has played steadily well -including a 27 point performance at Detroit. In addition, he has been crashing the offensive boards of late, which of course leads to more scoring opportunities. Aldridge has also been showing off more consistent range on his jumper, which will prove valuable if that deadly inside/out game of which I wrote is utilized more often.
Sergio Rodriguez
4. Surprises
Point Guard play - see above under Jerryd Bayliss for more. Blake has shown that his 40% from threes last season was not an aberration. He has been one of the best long-range shooters on the best 3 point shooting team in the league. Handling the ball, he has been a steadying force while at times becoming more of a two guard when playing with Roy. Rodriguez came back to Portland this year completely rejuvenated. Whether it was personal pride, the thought of playing with Fernandez, or being left off the Spanish national team, he had one of the strongest pre-seasons of any Blazer, and the strong play has continued to the regular season. He has had seven games with five or more assists, and has an assist to turnover ration of 4:1. His shooting, although not reflected in percentages, has looked more fluid and frankly, like more of an NBA shot. Easilly one of the most improved players on the roster.
Joel Przybilla - Przybilla started the season by losing his starting job to Oden, then quickly found himself back in the starting lineup after Oden’s early season injury. He has since returned to the bench, but the strong play has not stopped. Despite playing over thirty minutes just twice this season, Przybilla is having a career year - scoring 6.2 PPG, grabbing 8.0 RPG, and getting 1.6 BPG while shooting an incredible 80% from the field. When combined with Oden, he makes up half of what is without question the strongest center tandem in the league.
Petteri Koponen
5. What Else I Got Wrong
The Blazers opted not to sign Petteri Koponen, the Finish point guard, allowing him instead to sign a multi-year contract with Virtus Bologna. This will allow him to get some more seasoning while playing against strong competition, and essentially waiting for the point guard situation to thin in Portland. I saw Koponen play in Las Vegas during the summer of 2007, and while he was a raw, wiry kid then, he appeared to have matured greatly in the year between that appearance and this year’s Vegas Summer League. He was easily the second best player on the court in most games (behind Bayliss) and did not look far from NBA-ready. A few years in Italy should only help his game. I would look for him to come to the States in 2010 or 2011, if his rights are not dealt by then.
6. Outlook
So far, so good. It would be hard for anyone to argue that this team was not over-achieving, given the horrendous schedule they have played to date (seven home games out of their first 22), and the quality of the opposition (only 9 games against opponents not likely to make the playoffs). I hold to my prediction of 55 wins, and a 6th seed in the playoffs. While the numbers would tend to demonstrate that this team is capable of going on a run once the schedule thins a bit, I would expect there will be some bumps in the road and (inevitably) some injuries along the way. The clear development this season is that this is a playoff team now, and likely a contender in the next two years.
It’s a great year to be a Blazer.