Sports

You are currently browsing the archive for the Sports category.

Greg Oden

Greg Oden finishing with authority in the pre-season.

Does a Trail Blazers preview column necessarily have to be posted prior to the start of the season? I hope not. The bulk of this was written during the NBA pre-season; however my schedule prevented its completion on time for the start of the season. It’s just as well since injuries, inconsistency, and a rotation currently in flux has rendered a few of my early thoughts nearly useless.

With this said, we jump into my (slightly edited) 2009-2010 Trail Blazers preview column…

The 2008-09 NBA season saw a return to the playoffs for the Trail Blazers and a rekindling in earnest of the phenomena of Blazermania. Cue an embarrassing and lackluster six game series against Houston and a stiff dose of reality and the team has been faced with two major questions. First, can they complete the leap from talented group on the rise to an established member of the NBA’s elite; and second, can the team overcome foul trouble, injury, and a changed composition to match last year’s production – a necessity in order for the answer to the first question to be yes.

Brandon Roy vaulted to the cusp of becoming a perennial all-star with his 22.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game. LaMarcus Aldridge repeated his strong performance from his sophomore campaign, though fell short of the breakout many felt was in store (statistically, his third year production was nearly identical to that of his second). Steve Blake emerged as a reliable long range threat, making 40% of his three point attempts, and Travis Outlaw continued his reliable, if not entirely confidence-inducing bench production. Greg Oden was the team’s enigma, mixing disappointment (injuries and foul problems) with flashes of genuine dominance (interior defense and offensive rebounding) and mystifying problems with footwork and offensive fundamentals. Fortunately, Joel Przybilla combined with Oden to form what was one of the most effective defensive center tandems in the league, even if “effective” wasn’t necessarily the word fans hoped would describe Oden.

Rookie Nicolas Batum stepped in to the injured Martell Webster’s starting role and provided something Webster had not in his previous three years – strong perimeter defense. Rookie guard Rudy Fernandez captured fans hearts with his hustle and flair for the dramatic (on more than one occasion I had flashes of a young Drazen Petrovic dancing before my eyes in the form of Rudy’s raised arms following a made three pointer).

Team leader Brandon Roy

Team leader Brandon Roy

In all, what was supposed to be a season of small steps became one of leaps, however hesitant they may have been. The team was able to claim the Northwest Division Co-Championship with a last game victory over Denver, then proceeded to turn in one of their worst performances of the season in game 1 of the playoff series against the Rockets. The fundamental question for 2010 is which team will show up to play this season – the eager young club which appeared on the verge of dominance in late April, or the inexperienced and hesitant team that only managed to accomplish ending Dikembe Mutombo’s career in their first playoff appearance?

Additions:

Trade/Draft - Victor Claver, F, Valencia (ACB) (1:22) – Claver is a promising, albeit young forward who has shown a strong shooting touch for a big man. His draft stock was hurt by a knee injury, however his early numbers in ACB have been solid (11.0/6.0/1.5 Assists). Claver was not signed and will remain in Spain for the foreseeable future. He is currently under contract with Valencia and joins what is becoming a very strong contingent of Blazers overseas holdings – along with Petteri Koponen and Joel Freeland.

Trade/Draft - Jeff Pendergraph, F, Arizona (2:31) – Pendergraph was selected by the Kings and acquired by the Blazers in the Sergio Rodriguez trade. He was effective in Summer League play averaging 10.8 points and 7.6 rebounds for Portland. He was signed by the Blazers but will miss most of the season recovering from surgery for a left hip impingement. He should be considered a project and likely will not see any meaningful minutes this season.

Draft - Dante Cunningham, F, Villanova (2:33) – Cunningham was selected by the Blazers in the second round of the draft and excelled in the Vegas Summer League where averaged 18.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. His game and physical build draw comparisons to Travis Outlaw, however he seems to have a more polished skill set (especially offensively) than did Outlaw at a similar point in his career. Cunningham is the only rookie on Portland’s active roster to start the season, but will only see minutes in garbage time. He too is a project, but would appear to have a very high ceiling.

Draft - Patrick Mills, G, Saint Mary’s (2:55) – Mills was a somewhat controversial addition to the Blazers’ final roster, as his signing represented the 15th and final roster spot and led directly to Portland native and former fan favorite Ime Udoka being waived in his attempt to return to the Blazers. This said, he is a very talented guard who has shown his chops in international play for his native Australia (scoring 14 points per game in the Beijing Olympics – including 20 against the US) and during an impressive 2007-08 freshman season at Saint Mary’s. He missed the bulk of his sophomore season after breaking in his hand at Gonzaga, returning only for the WCC tournament. Mills then suffered a stress fracture in his foot during practices ahead of the NBA Summer League and will likely miss the bulk of this season. His signing was largely the result of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement, which forced the Blazers to tender an offer to Mills or risk losing his draft rights. He will continue his recovery and should be seen as a low-risk investment that likely will not play this season.

Point Guard Andre Miller finishes during the pre-season

Point Guard Andre Miller finishes during the pre-season

Free Agent - Andre Miller, PG, Philadelphia – Miller’s signing was seen by many as an afterthought following Hedo Turkoglu’s 11th hour spurning of the Blazers offer. (Many have compared Hedo’s bolt for Toronto to that of someone left at the alter – in reality, this was more like the groom saying “um, actually…” after the priest asks for objections.) Miller provides the potential for veteran leadership, the infusion of a run-first distributing point guard, an interior scorer and a dependable iron-man from a team that has had a series of nagging, persistent injuries over the last two years.

Free Agent - Juwan Howard, PF, Charlotte – Howard provides a veteran big man off of the Blazers’ bench and a last line of defense in the event of foul trouble or injury from Oden, Przybilla, Aldridge, or Outlaw – likely to be the forward/center rotation for Portland. He should be able to provide spurts of production when needed in the form of rebounding and short jumpers, but not much else. In 1990 dollars, he’s Wayne Cooper – today, he’s the last standing member of the Fab 5, and still chasing a ring.

Subtractions:

PG Sergio Rodriguez, (traded to Sacramento). Simply put, Sergio was not Nate McMillian’s guy. Beyond this, he failed to display any discernable improvement in two of his weakest areas of play – jump shooting and ball control. In extended minutes he showed flashes of being a serviceable point guard while lobbing perfect alley-oop passes to countryman Fernandez, but the guarantee of two assists per game does not generally secure a future in the league. In fact, his per 36 numbers were essentially level from his rookie season through the end of his third season. His trade netted Forward Jeff Pendergraph, who Sacramento chose #31 overall in the draft – an obvious drop in the stock of a player who was rumored to be garnering heavy trade interest for Kevin Pritchard just one season earlier.

Former Blazer Channing Frye

Former Blazer Channing Frye

F Channing Frye, (Free Agent, Phoenix). Frye was caught in a numbers game in Portland from the moment he arrived. He showed an ability to get shots off in bunches when playing time was consistent, and even provided a spirited flurry of double-doubles when LaMarcus Aldridge missed the final weeks of the 2007-08 season, but this would be the highlight of his tenure in Portland. Frye made precious few of the mid-range jumpers he took while with the Blazers, an ominous sign for what was supposed to be his strength. His move to Phoenix will allow him to play in a wide-open style that will not call for post play as often as did the Blazers style. (Early returns for Phoenix have been quite positive – Frye is averaging double figures and is hitting on over 44% of his shots from 3 point range, already draining a career high 22 through the Suns’ first 8 games).

F Nicolas Batum, (Injury). Batum was lost for what will likely be the bulk of the 2010 season, if not the entire year after having shoulder surgery during the pre-season. His loss means the Blazers will not have to resolve their logjam at small forward for the foreseeable future - perhaps the only positive to come out of the situation.

Outlook:

I see this team making a modest improvement in the standings over last season, finishing with a 56-26 record, alone atop the Northwest Division, and the #3 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. To say that the team’s fortunes for 2010 rest on the shoulders of Greg Oden is not an understatement. Given the current composition of the team, the only area where there appears to be room for significant improvement in both statistics and efficiency is the center position. Early returns are showing that Oden in fact has improved significantly in his areas of biggest concern – footwork, ball handling, and low-post offense; however he continues to show an uncanny ability to pick up fouls. This is becoming mantra in Portland, but as long as Oden can stay on the floor, he can dominate a game.

Will Fernandez remain happy with his role, should the wins fail to materialize?

Will Fernandez remain happy with his role, should the wins fail to materialize?

One potential problem for this team is chemistry – there simply are not enough minutes or shots available to keep everyone happy. I do not expect Fernandez to remain happy with his role while sharing second unit shots with Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw. To keep everyone happy, Nate McMillan will need to access every bit of diplomacy in his coaching repertoire, will need to hope that winning will soothe over any remaining problems.

Provided Roy matches or approaches his production from last season, Aldridge shows even modest improvement, and Miller and Blake can steady the team’s throttle while providing efficient point guard play, this team should reach the second round of the playoffs at a minimum. If these things happen, and Oden harnesses even 70% of his talent (and approaches 30 minutes per game) this could easily be a one of the participants in the Western Conference finals.

My 2009 Blazers playoff tickets

My 2009 Blazers playoff tickets

I’ve been a (half) season ticket holder for the Portland Trail Blazers for four years now - technically five, since I’ve already put in my deposit for the 2009-10 season.  Of course my decision to renew early this year was prompted by the letter I received stating that in order to lock in my playoff tickets for 2009, I would need to renew early for 2010.  Thus, I became a five year customer.  This week I picked up my playoff tickets.  It’s kind of strange to pick up playoff tickets - you see, since no one knows how many games will actually be played, they must provide tickets for all of the possible games.  Thus, I have eight tickets for the 2009 NBA Finals, to be played in Portland at a date and time yet to be determined.  It is quite possible - probable, even, that these games will only be played in the bizzaro universe where I am in fact the star point guard for the team.  I can see two problems with this scenario.  First, I don’t have a jump shot.  Second, I placed a $20 bet on 20-1 odds in September for the Blazers to win the NBA Finals while I was in Vegas.  If bizzaro David Stern (Danny Stein?) catches wind of this we’re finished.

 Ha Seung-Jin (photo from 2005)

Ha Seung-Jin (photo from 2005)

Back in the actual universe, this is the first year the team has made the playoffs since I’ve been back in the Portland area.  The team has come a long way since the final game of the first season for which I was a ticket holder.  That game was a 106-103 victory over an also lottery-bound Lakers team in which Sebastian Telfair scored 17 points and dished out 11 assists.  Ruben Patterson paced the Blazers’ starters with 18 points, Travis Outlaw had 20 off the bench, while a promising young center had 13 points and 5 rebounds on a nearly perfect 6-7 from the field.  Ladies and gentlemen, meet Ha Seung-Jin.   After the game Blazers Director of player personnel and interim coach Kevin Pritchard was quoted saying, “If you looked around the building tonight you saw some of our future playing out there.”  Well, sort of - Travis Outlaw is still on the team.  Theo Ratliff and Telfair became Brandon Roy, and Victor Khryapa and draft picks became LaMarcus Aldridge.  Apparently Pritchard, now the team’s General Manager, wasn’t bowled over by the future he saw.

In the years since, the roster has been completely turned over, resulting in a 2008-09 regular season which saw 54 wins and a fourth place finish in the Western Conference.  In June I predicted 55 wins and no less than 6th place in the conference.  I was off by one win, but two playoff seeds.  I’ll take that trade any day.

Something else has happened in the four years since I became a season ticket holder - the city has again embraced its only major league team.  Today thousands of fans packed Pioneer Courthouse Square for a pep-rally of sorts - a celebration for making the playoffs the magnitude of which is normally reserved for championship wins rather than playoff appearances.  The players all spoke, as did team dignitaries.  Three news choppers surveyed the scene, and KGW Channel 8 ran three hours of live coverage (in HD, even).  This is the type of thing that when picked up by the national media will label Portland as “bush league”, and “happy just to be there.”  Personally, I love it.

In high school we held pep rallies the day of football games and in the days leading up to the state basketball tournament.  In elections, we hold massive rallies for our candidates on the waterfront.  Why should it be any different for our team?  The natural argument is that the team is comprised of 15 millionaires who are paid to play a game by one of the richest men in the world, during a time in which 12% of Oregonians are out of work.  “They should be holding rallies for us, dammit” you might be saying.  Well, idiot, that’s exactly what they did.

Blazers GM Kevin Prichard with the 1977 NBA Championship Trophy during a celebration of the 30th Anniversary of the Blazers' championship season.

GM Kevin Pritchard with the 1977 NBA Championship Trophy during the 30th anniversary celebration of the Blazers' championship season.

This was not a rally for the team, it was a chance for 10,000 Portlanders to gather during a sunny afternoon and forget that a lot of things really suck right now.  Most of the people who attended won’t be able to get in to a playoff game - sheer numbers dictate that.  Only a few hundred tickets were made available to the general public - the rest were snatched up by people like me, who must purchase tickets to all the playoff games in order to secure the luxury of buying tickets to only half the regular season games the following season.

These people were there because they are excited about the team.  This was a celebration that would not have taken place last year, or at any time during the last five years.  It could be argued then, that the amount of happiness brought to the city today by a mass gathering of people in the center of town would have simply been missing in the previous five years.  Sure, this is a cash cow for all involved - this is witnessed by the amount of red and black gear being worn by those in attendance.  At the same time, there is something about the affect a winning team has on a community in whole that simply cannot be measured in terms of simple economics or negated by criticism of the world at large.

Portland is a city the pulse of which once beat with the pounding of a basketball on hardwood.  Where in the early 90s the degree of civic pride could be measured by the intricacies of the signs displayed in windows of homes or businesses offering support for the team facing Detroit, Los Angeles or Chicago.  After first experiencing the disappointment of coming up short against Isaiah, Magic, and Michael, the city was alienated over the following ten years by a group of players who not only did not win, but who did not represent the character traits in which the city could have pride.

The last five years has seen a complete turnover of the team’s roster, with Outlaw the lone exception.  Along the way, the team has rebuilt its connections to the city, rebuilt its own image by embracing the high standards by which its previous incarnations had been judged, and in the process brought back a level of pride and community spirit that could culminate in a real-life pep rally in the streets of downtown Portland.  Hopefully we’ll have  a chance to do it all again in June.

Maybe that bet will help me pay off those playoff tickets after all.

Oregon staring pitcher Bennett Whitmore

Oregon staring pitcher Bennett Whitmore

Today I attended my first full baseball game of the season, having previously seen pieces of three separate games, but no complete contests.  My family and I witnessed the reconstituted Oregon Ducks take on Oregon State Beavers in a Civil War contest at PGE Park.  After having split the first two games of the series, the Sunday rubber game showed exactly how far ahead in talent and experience the Beavers program is when compared with the Ducks (not surprising, given the Beavers are only one year removed from back-to-back NCAA titles).Oregon State pitcher Jorge Reyes (2007 College World Series Most Outstanding Player) was marvelous, giving up only one run in his seven innings pitched, while striking out six and allowing only two hits. The Beavers took advantage of every opportunity presented to them and displayed superb situational hitting in route to a convincing victory.

Beyond the 8-1 score, nine walks, three wild pitches, three errors, and several instances of puzzling defensive lapses surrendered by the Ducks, the day was not a total loss.  For the first time in my life, I was able to root for a Ducks team play my favorite sport - and despite the throttling they received, it was a pretty good day spent with my parents, Brandon, and 13,709 fans of baseball in the state of Oregon.

13,709 watch the Ducks get slaughtered

13,709 watch the Ducks get slaughtered

For me, this is what it is all about: over two days in Portland, over 29,000 fans attended (or at least purchased tickets for) two college baseball games. Granted, a large amount of the interest likely had to do with the rivalry between the two schools, but this goes to show once again how much interest in baseball there is in Portland, and in the state of Oregon as a whole. This comes at important juncture for baseball In Portland, as it was recently announced that a new stadium for the PCL’s Portland Beavers will be built to accommodate MLS’ expansion to Portland.

The stadium being proposed at this point in time is a roughly 9,000 seat park to be located either in the Rose Quarter (taking the place of Memorial Coliseum) or in SE Portland’s Lents Park (please let it be the Rose Quarter). The city of Portland should take into account the future of sports in Portland as plans are developed. Hopefully, they will build the park with a potential expansion and upgrade to Major League facilities in mind, regardless of Portland Beavers owner Merritt Paulson’s likely interest in preserving the market for his AAA club.

At some point in the next decade Portland will have a genuine opportunity to attract a Major League team, much like the one that was wasted in 2004 when the Montreal Expos chose to relocate to Washington, D.C. This opportunity may come sooner than expected, as it was recently announced (and has remained under the radar) that the Oakland Athletics will no longer negotiate with the cities of Oakland or Fremont for a new ballpark. San Jose is said to be interested in starting negotiations for an A’s ballpark, but the San Francisco Giants hold the MLB territory rights to Santa Clara County, which could prove problematic for such a move. If this cannot be resolved, Portland would become a natural relocation option for the team.

The only other serious candidates for relocation (Las Vegas and Sacramento) each have much larger obstacles standing in the way of actually attracting MLB – economics (Sacramento has fared worse than Portland in the recent economic meltdown, is smaller, and, let’s face it, just isn’t as attractive in general… sorry, Gio) and gambling (last time I checked, MLB was not a fan of gambling… ask Joe Jackson or Pete Rose). I know this is all a pipe dream at this point; and not a very realistic one given Portland’s unwillingness for bold action, but a guy can dream, right? Besides, as much as I love the Ducks, I’d much rather join 30,000 Oregonians in rooting for a Portland Beavers team to take down the Seattle Mariners in an AL West matchup.

Greg Oden

When we left off, I had just relayed a June forecast message to a fellow Blazers fan (Peter) who had been traveling the world.

Seeing as we are now a quarter of the way through the Blazers’ season (26.8% to be precise) I felt it was time to go back and look at a few of the things I said at that time while reviewing what has happened to date with Portland’s only major league sports franchise.

1. The record to date

Through 22 games, the Blazers record rests at 15-7, good for a winning percentage of .682 and first place by a half game in front of the Denver Nuggets in the Northwest Division.  For those mathemagicians among us, that is on pace for 55 wins - the exact number I predicted in June.  Score one for Pratt.  Actually, rounding up, it would be good for 56, but I like being right.  What is particularly impressive about the team’s early season success is that it has come while the Blazers have played 15 games on the road, including two 5-game road trips.  With a home stand coming in late December, I would not expect the pace to slow.

2. The rookies

With nearly all eyes squarely set upon him, Greg Oden has shown solid, if not spectacular play.  Despite suffering a sprained foot in his first minute of game time in the season opener versus the Lakers, and while averaging 22 minutes a game, he has racked up seven double-doubles and led the team in rebounding nine times.  This said, there is clearly a lot of room for improvement, particularly on the offensive end.  He has shown a tendency to bring the ball low upon receiving a pass, allowing defenders an opportunity to make a swipe at it, or prepare for a block.  He has not finished especially well, and his footwork leaves a lot to be desired.  That said, he has already shown improvement in these areas, and I would expect improvement to continue throughout the season as he gets more game experience.  His defensive game is already very good, approaching elite status.  He is almost a lock for two blocks a game in his limited minutes, and his very presence forces teams to alter their play on both sides of the ball.  I did not comment on my expectations for final numbers from Greg for the season, but I would expect his numbers to climb with his minutes, likely finishing the season averaging 10-11 PPG, 8-9 RPG, and 2 BPG.  Not rookie of the year numbers, but good for All-Rookie First Team.  Basically, he’s raw - which everyone knew coming out of the 2007 Draft - then he lost an entire season before really being able to work on his game.  Bottom line, this kid is special, and it’s clear that he will be much better in the coming years than he is now - and he’s pretty damn good now.

Rudy Fernandez

Rudy Fernandez has been everything that his Spanish League play indicated he could be.  He has shown a deadly outside shot, a level of flash and hard-nosed play that had been missing from the Blazers lineup, and the ability to explode for 15 off the bench any night, as has happened seven times to date.  Like Oden, his 48 minute numbers are fantastic - 20 PPG, to be exact, but barring injury, I do not see him starting this season due to the fact that the team has continued to show an inability to play consistently without a true point guard in the lineup, even with Brandon Roy running the show.

Nicolas Batum has been the biggest surprise - I originally thought he would stay in Europe, or at best would spend significant portions of the season in the NBDL - and this was before his horrid showing in the Las Vegas Summer League.  His development and emergence in the pre-season was a revelation, and is going to make the rotation tricky once Martell Webster fully returns from injury.  Batum has been the starting small forward for all but three games this season, showing an uncanny ability to find the ball - steals, broken passes, blocks, rebounds - you name it, he has been involved.  On the offensive side, he has shown a surprisingly consistent mid and long-range shot and the ability to drive to the hoop or finish on a breakaway.  I would put the overall level of his play on par with where Travis Outlaw was in his third year, with his defense being superior to Outlaw right now.  Comparisons are drawn between Batum and Tayshaun Prince of the Detroit Pistons, both for physical resemblance and style of play - I think those are premature (obviously) but with more minutes (which won’t be happening - at least not this season) it is easy to see his numbers approaching Prince’s.

Jerryd Bayliss has been a non-factor, which is a far cry from my prediction that he could overtake Steve Blake as a starter during the season.  Blake’s strong play (career highs across the board) combined with the reemergence and consistent performance of Sergio Rodriguez has sat Bayliss on the bench for all but eight of Portland’s games.  When he has played his minutes have come mostly during garbage time, and apart from a productive seven minute stretch at Boston this week, his play has been ordinary - what you’d expect from garbage minutes.  He has the ability to score quickly, especially on drives to the basket - minutes will be hard to come by, so I would like to see coach Nate McMillan use Bayliss as a spark plug in situations such as the game at Boston where quick points may be needed to snap the team out of a funk, or possibly when nothing else is working.  But who am I to argue with the way minutes are doled out on a 15-7 team?

3. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge

Thanks must be given to Kevin McHale and John Paxson for trading Roy and Aldridge, respectively, to Portland during the 2006 NBA Draft.  Roy has picked up where his All-Star performance last year left off, leaving little doubt that Blazers fans are witnessing the emergence of a super star.  Aldridge, meanwhile, has had an inconsistent, but overall strong start to the season.  He seems to have rebounded from a shooting slump that struck in late November, and since then has played steadily well -including a 27 point performance at Detroit.  In addition, he has been crashing the offensive boards of late, which of course leads to more scoring opportunities.  Aldridge has also been showing off more consistent range on his jumper, which will prove valuable if that deadly inside/out game of which I wrote is utilized more often.

Sergio Rodriguez

4. Surprises

Point Guard play - see above under Jerryd Bayliss for more.  Blake has shown that his 40% from threes last season was not an aberration.  He has been one of the best long-range shooters on the best 3 point shooting team in the league.  Handling the ball, he has been a steadying force while at times becoming more of a two guard when playing with Roy.  Rodriguez came back to Portland this year completely rejuvenated.  Whether it was personal pride, the thought of playing with Fernandez, or being left off the Spanish national team, he had one of the strongest pre-seasons of any Blazer, and the strong play has continued to the regular season.  He has had seven games with five or more assists, and has an assist to turnover ration of 4:1.  His shooting, although not reflected in percentages, has looked more fluid and frankly, like more of an NBA shot.  Easilly one of the most improved players on the roster.

Joel Przybilla - Przybilla started the season by losing his starting job to Oden, then quickly found himself back in the starting lineup after Oden’s early season injury.  He has since returned to the bench, but the strong play has not stopped.  Despite playing over thirty minutes just twice this season, Przybilla is having a career year - scoring 6.2 PPG, grabbing 8.0 RPG, and getting 1.6 BPG while shooting an incredible 80% from the field.  When combined with Oden, he makes up half of what is without question the strongest center tandem in the league.

Petteri Koponen

5. What Else I Got Wrong

The Blazers opted not to sign Petteri Koponen, the Finish point guard, allowing him instead to sign a multi-year contract with Virtus Bologna.  This will allow him to get some more seasoning while playing against strong competition, and essentially waiting for the point guard situation to thin in Portland.  I saw Koponen play in Las Vegas during the summer of 2007, and while he was a raw, wiry kid then, he appeared to have matured greatly in the year between that appearance and this year’s Vegas Summer League.  He was easily the second best player on the court in most games (behind Bayliss) and did not look far from NBA-ready.  A few years in Italy should only help his game.  I would look for him to come to the States in 2010 or 2011, if his rights are not dealt by then.

6. Outlook

So far, so good.  It would be hard for anyone to argue that this team was not over-achieving, given the horrendous schedule they have played to date (seven home games out of their first 22), and the quality of the opposition (only 9 games against opponents not likely to make the playoffs).  I hold to my prediction of 55 wins, and a 6th seed in the playoffs.  While the numbers would tend to demonstrate that this team is capable of going on a run once the schedule thins a bit, I would expect there will be some bumps in the road and (inevitably) some injuries along the way.  The clear development this season is that this is a playoff team now, and likely a contender in the next two years.

It’s a great year to be a Blazer.

On June 30, 2008 I wrote an email to Peter, who was busy traveling through Europe at the time, summarizing the 2008 NBA Draft and the Blazers’ outlook for the coming season - it read:

Greg Oden

We start with five picks, but end up with two draftees, one of whom will likely stay in Europe (Nicolas Batum - SF, France) - however, there is a chance he could be signed, as he does not have a guaranteed deal in Europe - I think this is a long shot. More likely, he stays in Europe for 1-2 years. We trade one second round selection (Omer Asik, C, Turkey) to Chicago for three future 2nd rounders, and another (Mike Taylor, G, NBDL - the first player drafted out of the D league, by the way) to the Clips for a 2nd rounder next year. We traded a 1st rounder (#27 - Darrell Arthur, F, Kansas) that was purchased from N.O. along with the earliest selection of this year’s 2nd Rounders (#33 - Joey Dorsey, F, MEMPHIS!) to Houston for Batum. Of course, this leaves the biggest deal - Jack and McRoberts with #13 pick Brandon Rush (there really is only room for one Brandon, after all) to Indiana for Jerryd Bayliss and Ike Diogu. Bayliss fits in immediately as Blake’s backup, but he’s got the talent to overtake Blake by mid season if everything clicks. His college play (in one season) did not display him as a true point guard, but this likely had more to do with the fact that he was Arizona’s first scoring option (19.7ppg as a Frosh). He’s got a ton of talent, and really, was a steal where the Pacers took him (#11). I think the bigger picture here is that by not trading for a veteran PG, they are committing to playing Brandon more at the point, with Rudy at SG and SF. I think we’re going to see a lot of small lineups, with any combo of Blake-Roy-Rudy/TO/Marty, or Bayless-Roy-Rudy/TO/Marty with ALdridge/Frye/Oden/Joel alternating in the frontcourt.

Names missing from the rotation: James Jones, Sergio Rodriguez, LaFrentz (duh), Diogu. First, Jones - he has opted out of his contract, and he reportedly has an offer from at least one team for 4 years/$20mil. He can’t come close to this with Portland, so he’ll be gone - probably a good thing in the long run, since Marty and Rudy will eat up those minutes anyway.

Sergio: He’s as good as gone. If there is a taker over the course of the summer, look for him to be traded. He regressed in every category from his rookie season, and now, he will not be taking part in summer league - a big, big mistake, especially since he’s no longer on the Spanish national team. My prediction has him going away for a pick or an expiring contract (possibly to Phoenix, the team that originally drafted him). I believe there is a good chance of the Blazers signing Petteri Koponen to fill the “developing point guard” roster spot. He has added a lot of bulk, is coming off a good season in Finland, and will be participating in Summer League. He is a big point guard (6′4″) and, from what I saw last year in Vegas, the kid can play.

LaFrentz: Last year of his deal - he will make sure the bench doesn’t tip up in the air when Greg and Joel get up to fill the center role. More importantly, his $12.8mil will come off the cap before the 2009 free agent class. (more importantly still, Stevie Franchise’s deal will also then be off the cap - another $19mil)

Diogu: I can’t see where he fits with this team - if he sticks, it is likely because Frye gets moved - I hope this doesn’t happen, because I love Channing’s game - especially along side Greg. More likely, he fills McRobert’s role next to LaFrentz, but - but he actually has quite a bit of talent as a low post scorer.

Here is my rotation/roster:

Starters:
PG Blake
SG Roy
SF Outlaw
PF Aldridge
C Oden

6. Webster
7. Fernandez
8. Pryzbilla
9. Bayless
10. Frye
11. Rodriguez (not in rotation)
12. Diogu (not in rotation)

13. LaFrentz
14. Koponen
15. (real long shot) Nicolas Batum or Joel Freeland.

If Fernandez has a strong showing in camp, don’t be shocked if the starting lineup has him at SG and Roy at PG, with Blake first off the bench, likely to sub for TO around the 6:00 mark. I envision a lot of small back court lineups, with Oden and Aldridge creating a deadly inside/outside combo at PF/C (and Pryzbilla/Frye doing the same thing for the 2nd unit). Bottom line - I see 55 wins. Much, much better than last year - and no less than a 6 seed. This team has a chance to be scary good - this year.

Next year, a top of the class free agent is a distinct possibility, especially if Allen gives the green light and doesn’t mind paying a luxury tax once Roy and Aldridge come up for max contracts in 2011/12, and Oden the next year.

—- Flash forward to the present —-

Tomorrow, I will write my assessment on how the season has progressed to date - so far, so good.  My predictions, not so much.

Giovanni and I; Phoenix Memorial Stadium

Keeping with this line of thought, I repeated the Spring Training trip last month, this time bringing Giovanni along on the road portion with Miller joining us mid-week in Phoenix. This year’s takeaways: I will never, ever make this drive again - all subsequent trips to the desert southwest will be made in the air; game tickets will be purchased no later than the end of January; and more sights will be seen around the town and state on scheduled days off, gained from the lack of four travel days. Among the sights yet to be seen – The Grand Canyon, Barringer Meteorite Crater, Sedona, Saguaro National Park, and the ghost town where the Brady Bunch was wrongly jailed on their way to the canyon (I know, this was filmed on a set… but how cool would that be?).

Jack Cust's 2007 Portland Beavers Jersey

But enough of that – the last month has seen a few other items worthy of note. The most significant has been a change to my role at work. I am no longer traveling in my claims adjusting duties, rather, I will be controlling my files and conducting coverage investigations from the comfort of my northwest Portland apartment, which means less work travel, more freedom to make plans outside of work, and hopefully, the ability to advance myself a little further in my career in the not so distant future… hopefully.

If the insurance thing doesn’t work out… (I’ve only been doing it for five years now) I’ve always got minor league basketball to fall back on. That’s right, I served as an official scorer a few weeks ago for the Portland Chinooks of the International Basketball League. Sadly, this was even more stressful than my day job, as it was the first game I have scored since at least high school, and the final score ended up being 125-112. That’s a lot of points, by the way. I didn’t screw up too badly… at least not in the end. After the first half I failed to calibrate my mind to the fact that the teams do in fact switch hoops, something that resulted in my scoring the teams exactly opposite what they should have been for the first half of the third quarter. After a brief panic attack, I figured it out and corrected my error… good thing no one reads this website…

Speaking of this website, I am currently sketching out some ideas for the first major overhaul since adopting the Saturatedpratt name nearly six years ago. Hopefully the coming months will bring a better overall design, working comments, a dedicated sports page, and possibly even a pod cast covering news, commentary, an attempt at humor, and of course, music. This is pretty ambitious, and I make no promises, but I do hope to have all of this (or at least the pieces I decide to keep) online in the coming months. Stay tuned for more details.

As the seasons once again change, with (albeit mild) hurricane force winds blowing the Pacific Northwest headfirst into winter, I turn back to the pages of Saturatedpratt – the silent companion to literally tens of readers throughout the dark months.  Its been a rather fast four months and change since my last update, so as always, a quick re-cap should brings us up to speed. 

August and September were filled with, as has become the norm for summer, work and baseball.  Unlike the first half of the year, the late summer and early fall found me working fairly close to home – the longest work trip being a brief two-day jaunt to Klamath Falls.  This being the case, I had to augment my relatively light work travel with a baseball-centered road trip with Miller to Vancouver, B.C. and all stops in between. 

On this trip, I completed my second complete tour of a professional baseball circuit, adding the last two Northwest League parks I had yet to visit (Vancouver’s Nat Bailey Field and Everett’s Memorial Stadium) to my collection.  The Northwest League now joins the Cactus as the two I have completed with no realistic successor in sight, barring a move to another geographic region.  I will likely focus my efforts next year on seeing the Dodgers’ last spring training in Vero Beach, followed by hopefully being able to get some tickets to the their two-game exhibition series against the Red Sox at the L.A. Coliseum, where they played their first two seasons on the west coast.  The big trip for the year will probably be New York sometime in spring or early summer to see Yankee Stadium in its final season – I think it’s a must for any true baseball fan to see the house that Ruth built before Steinbrenner knocks it down.

But wait – this update isn’t about the future, it’s about the past four months.  After the September trip, the next big event was a quick weekend trip in October to Seattle to see Karen & Emily’s wedding.  I don’t get to see them very often (or anyone who doesn’t live in the Portland area, for that matter) so it was great to catch up them, as it was with Brunner and Megan, and Lauren and Garth, who once again volunteered their extra bedroom for the night.  I always have a great time whenever I see my friends from my Carson days, and I hope to see them a lot more often than the once every two years at someone’s wedding plan I’ve been on of late, especially with all the sports-related travel… (well, except for the Yankee Stadium trip – that is a necessity.)

The rest of the time from October until the present has been spent dividing time between work, Ducks football, Blazers basketball, and going to the gym.  As always, the colder months are bringing with them a lot more work for me, so I’ve been doing more traveling of late.  Last week’s work-related adventuring took me to Aberdeen, Washington, one of the last places in the state of Washington I had not seen on the company dime. 

Between making visits to agents, lining up contractors, and conducting interviews, I found a little time to poke around town.  My findings are as follows: it is very gray and damp, the area is in serious need of an economic kick-start if the vacancy rate downtown is any indication, and I can totally see how the region would rear a kid like Kurt Cobain.  I wandered the downtown and snapped a few pictures, including some of what I am sure was a spectacular electric company building in it’s time – a stocky two level structure speckled with hundreds of sockets that were once filled with lights lining the windows and nearly every other architectural line on the building’s façade.

After taking in civic utility buildings of a bygone era, I went to see the historic bridge crossing the Wishkah river, the same river by which Cobain myth dictates he slept while periodically homeless in Aberdeen.  After being there at high tide, I agree with Krist Novoselic’s assertion that this myth was only that – a myth.

So, that basically catches us up to the present.  Next week I will be taking a week off for a random “use it or lose it” vacation – I will probably spend most of the week wandering around town taking pictures, going to the gym, and just relaxing before what is shaping up to be a very busy next couple of months at work.  If I find enough time, I just may throw a couple updates online, as well as a story or two.  Stay tuned.

Oh, the places I have been! Since I last graced this site with an update, I have experienced Spring Training, visited Denver twice, driven through Wyoming and into South Dakota, seen Albuquerque, flown into Las Vegas for the NBA Summer League and ventured into Montana, then Wyoming for a second time. (Technically, the Spring Training and Dakota trips occurred prior to the last post, but since I wrote the post before I took the trips, I’m counting it… sue me.)

In short, a lot has happened. So in lieu of making an in-depth post about each of the individual trips, I will burn through them at a rapid-fire pace so I can get on with making a real update… look at this as a sort of “here’s what happened last season on…” portion of a television show, except instead of some actor named Chris Pratt, you get me. Speaking of lawsuits, I’ve got to go after that guy.

Our journey begins on Wednesday, March 8, 2007 when I set off in my Honda Civic Hybrid for the sunny southwest and the six-week orgy of baseball that signals the actually new year – Spring Training. On the way I went through Idaho (Saw the Blue Turf), Utah (saw the Mormon Temple… impressive, and a little scary), Las Vegas (got frustrated by traffic, then gave up and went to Hoover Dam), and finally all nine Cactus League ballparks. Miller joined me on the 15th and stayed through the weekend. I caught a foul ball off the bat of Chicago Cub Ronnie Cedeno, while sitting in the first row of Tuscon Electric Park, and was horribly sun burnt. In addition, I saw the best scoreboard announcement ever – skeptics may say I only caught a small segment of scrolling text, but that’s why they are skeptics. Personally, I can’t agree more with the scoreboard operator.

Upon returning to Oregon, I was immediately sent off to South Dakota for work, after first flying into Denver and driving through Wyoming to reach my destination. While there, I visited Mount Rushmore, and the Crazy Horse Memorial, which has been under construction for a ridiculous 59 years I would have contributed to the construction effort with a donation had the visitor’s center been open when I arrived… instead, I simply stole a look at the sculpture… I’m sure that’s a theme the Lakota are used to. On my way back to Denver, I found myself stuck in the heaviest snowstorm I have ever experienced, complete with freeway driving in complete whiteout conditions. I have a feeling Crazy Horse intended on getting his revenge.

April was relatively quiet, consisting mainly of attempting to recover from the month of constant travel that March brought.

With May came yet another trip to Denver, this time for a meeting after which I took a few personal days, saw the Denver Mint and the Rockies beat the Giants, and ventured into New Mexico to catch an Albuquerque Isotopes game. While I did not enjoy a hot dog brimming with southwestern flavors, I did enjoy the victory the Portland Beavers achieved over the ‘Topes. Oddly though, I ended up being seated next to a Portlander who is currently living in Albuquerque, which meant that the two people wearing Portland Beavers garb in a crowd of several thousand were sitting right next to each other, and had never before met. It was a little strange, but it seemed to make sense. Isotopes Stadium was by far the best minor league facility I have seen yet in my travels, easily eclipsing the next night’s stop, Colorado Springs’ Security Service Field. My takeaways from this trip: Jesus is HUGE in Colorado Springs, as are many of the women; and the omnipresent hold the military has on this region is simply unbearable. I could never live there.

Early July saw a quick three-day jaunt to Las Vegas to witness the beginning of Greg Oden’s career as a Portland Trailblazer, facing off against the once-great Boston Celtics. In fact, I sat courtside for Oden’s first game, which would have been nice on its own. However, my attempt to slum-up the normal haunts of the beautiful people brought with it the somewhat surreal experience of sitting right next to the Celtics’ brain trust of GM Danny Ainge and head coach Doc Rivers, who were joined by onetime wunderkind Sebastian Telfair. In all, it was a little awkward when Telfair sat down… I mean, aside from maybe Pacman Jones, there really isn’t anyone with whom I have less in common. On top of that, he was absolutely swimming in some sort of cologne.

When he arrived, I simply gave him a welcoming “hey”, to which he responded with a nod. It was a good enough response for me. The Celtics ended up blowing out Greg Oden and the Blazers, but not before I exchanged comments with Telfair over a few horrible calls, and had a conversation with Rivers about Portland and how great the fans are, and how Rivers would kill to have two bigs like those gracing the Blazers’ roster. The guy sitting next to me caught the scene on my camera, but I think he had a case of the shakes, judging by the blurriness of the photo. Giovanni came down that evening and we spent the rest of the weekend taking in games, people watching, and losing a small amount of money in penny slots while stocking up on complimentary drinks.

As was the case in March, immediately upon my return I was sent to the Mountain Time Zone on business, this time to Billings, Montana. While there, I took in my first Pioneer League games, first in Billings where the Mustangs beat the Orem Owlz (they should have had to spot the Stangs 10 runs for the Z in their name alone), then in Casper, Wyoming, where I saw the hometown Rockies get trounced by the Missoula Osprey. More importantly, I ended up with two Pioneer League baseballs as souvenirs that night – the first a homerun ball off the bat of Osprey second baseman Taylor Harbin that came sailing toward me while I was parking my trusty rental car beyond the left field fence prior to entering the ballpark, and the second a foul ball that apparently only I noticed land while standing in line for a bratwurst. While in Casper, I struck up a conversation with the guy who was sitting behind me after he had recognized the Isotopes hat I was wearing. It turns out he also went to Spring Training, and tries to see as many ballparks as he can while traveling, including the California League and the Pacific Coast League. It was a little comforting, and at the same time a little troubling, seeing as he was praising my dedication in driving from Billings to Casper, only to turn around an return to Billings after two and a half hours of Rookie League ball. Also, he was probably in his 60s, which made me feel a bit like an RV-ing snowbird, and less like a guy who just turned 27… failing that, I should at least bring a girl along next time, so long as I don’t find her in Colorado Springs.

Please excuse me a moment for plunging headfirst into dork-dom. Now that I have your attention, let us examine the special time of the year that is once again upon us – spring. It has long been considered the season of love. It is the beginning of the end of darkness for sufferers of SAD, the beginning of mega-profit season for big oil, which awakens from its winter slumber of merely very large profits, and most importantly, it marks the beginning of the greatest game ever invented - baseball.

Before we get too far, let us not confuse this post with the one that will follow chronicling my March month of travels beginning with ten days spent seeing the Cactus League. No, this update centers on the event that serves as notice that the season is just around the corner – the release of Topps Baseball, series one.

Before you have to ask, yes, at twenty-six I still collect baseball cards, though not at the staggering pace I once did. So does Keith Olbermann, and he’s the most trusted man in cable news, so shut up.

As you may have seen, the release of this year’s edition of Topps baseball cards was met with some level of notoriety, even making the network news rounds. This was due to a few celebrity appearances on the front of Derek Jeter’s card. Joining the Yankees’ future Hall of Fame shortstop on the card’s front was the image of a current Hall of Famer, Mickey Mantle, who was beaming at New York’s favorite son from the home team’s dugout. Apparently, this was a very special day at the stadium, as future convicted felon George W. Bush joined number seven at the house Ruth built, waving at the camera from his box seats in a fashion not unlike those jackasses you see on television talking on their cell phones and waving behind the backstop in a desperate attempt for the attention of ESPN 2’s cameras.

Unlike those jackasses, the images of Mantle and Bush were not genuine – they were Photoshopped. I know this because Mantle died in 1995 and George W. Bush probably wouldn’t risk the treatment that comes with a 30% approval rating. Putting two and two together, someone at Topps was obviously playing a prank. What is surprising is that at first glance it’s hard to notice the insertions. In fact, I completely missed them while rifling through the first box of cards I purchased this year. While I may have overlooked what became a national oddball news story, I spotted several examples of a painful practice that I thought had disappeared several years ago.

This practice of which I speak is the magic airbrushing of photos of players involved in off-season transactions. You see, back in the 1970s and 1980s, and up until the early 90s, Topps released their sets in one series of 660, 726, and finally, 792 cards. This allowed for insertion of the vast majority of major leaguers and even some prospects. The release of only one series (at least until the late-season release of the small “traded” sets) meant that many of the players would be pictured in with last season’s team. The solution? The same as the solution to so many of life’s problems – call an artist!

Photos of the offending old unis were magically transformed into new uniforms, showing an ultra-mod use of watercolors, and sometimes taking extreme liberties with team color schemes.

Take for instance two of my favorite examples – the 1977 Topps Dave Pagan (#508) and the 1987 Topps Mike Laga (#321). Informed baseball fans will know that the Seattle Mariners did not exist in 1976 – they were an expansion team for the ’77 season along with the Toronto Blue Jays, so obviously, any new Mariner was a candidate for the artists at Topps. In fairness, a lot of attention was paid to shadowing on Pagan’s trident cap, making it ultra-real. A little too real, and while we’re at it, a little too blue. As for our friend Laga, he wasn’t so lucky. His 1986 Detroit Tigers duds were transformed into a great pink variant of a Cardinals uni, with oddly orange and blue Tigerish striping around the collar. Like the clubhouse manager “accidentally” left the really red cap in the laundry with his new jersey. No wonder the Twins were able to dispatch the Cards in the ’87 Series, and no wonder Laga only hit .138 with the Red Birds. And this treatment for a former first round pick.

Then, like a great shooting star, they were gone.

Years went by without so much as noticing a Mets “NY” fudged into a Yankees “NY.” Every now and then a prospect would have his college or minor league team’s logo wiped out for use on a major league card, but that just wasn’t the same. Hell, they’d even gone to the extent of breaking sets into multiple series and throwing most of the off-season transactions into the later series. Other times, prospects were shown in their (gasp) spring training garments. Hope appeared to be lost for yet another childhood tradition – gone the way of Indian red crayons and tan M & Ms.

Then, like a grand old friend, there he was, in glimmering Oakland green. Mike Piazza was wearing a jersey greener than any I had ever seen a player for my team wear. In an instant, I knew a seemingly dormant habit had returned, and more confident than ever. Bengie Molina (#4), Julio Lugo (#11), Miguel Batista (#13), Chris Britton (#21) and Gary Matthews, Jr. (#25) all received in the artists’ treatment (now done digitally, rather than with a brush). That is five out of the first twenty-five! That must be some kind of record, and those were just the no-doubters. Others looked kind of funny, but I’m willing to give them the benefit of doubt on Corey Patterson, if for no other reason than the others were just so brazen.

While some would view this as a step backwards, I can only see this as a clear sign of progress on the march. If Topps can bring the Mick back from the dead and put him back in the dugout, then putting Alfonso Soriano on the Cubs doesn’t look all that hard after all. Now if they could just cut and paste success over the Cubs franchise, we’d know they can truly design miracles.

Fall is here, and in these pre-turn-back-the-clock weeks, daylight is quickly becoming but a fleeting acquaintance, or at least it seems that way from the daily confines of my cubicle. Perhaps it just feels a little more taxing seeing as I’ve recently been staying up far too late on school nights, and have been getting up earlier than normal in my attempts to actually standardize a morning routine for the first time since high school. Really, this was all done in an attempt to improve my bad attitude… at least my early morning bad attitude.

I apparently failed to realize that when one wakes up an hour earlier than normal, it is typically best to avoid going to sleep two hours later than normal… and even better to avoid doing so for a week solid. Needless to say, I’m having trouble focusing right now.

What? You were looking for an interesting update? I know… I know.

As evidenced in my previous post, the past few weeks have brought with them a little actual change, and a lot of ideas for change. Most evident of this is the fact that I am actually seriously considering giving up my cable TV. No, this isn’t a monetary thing (though donations are accepted) or a suicide thing (I’m not giving AWAY my TV), rather, I think I watch too much of it.

The thought here is that if I had less History Channel, college football, and COPS to watch, I might read more about history, get in shape for my impending college football comeback (which begs the question- if I returned to school, would I have NCAA eligibility seeing as I have graduated, but never played a sport? I say yes…) or I could go out and break some laws, in turn completing some sort of divine circle and actually being on one of my favorite shows!

Actually, the reading part and the activity part are probably the greatest impetuses for this idea, though the Ronnie Dobbs-esque celebrity is also alluring. A secondary reason is the simple fact that I am not home very much anymore, and hopefully I will soon live somewhere where there are more entertainment options, allowing less time for simply laying around, and more for culture and personal growth.

Along those lines, last weekend I made a trek to the Portland Art Museum to check out the new Mark Building, view the architectural updates to the old Masonic Temple it is housed in, and of course, view some art. The only hitch was that I know very little about art… though I think I avoided saying things like, “wow, that’s pretty!” I did sense a few looks of utter contempt from hipster art snob wannabes though, (you know, the ultra-skinny, ultra pale guy with dyed, jet-back, ear-length hair, too-tight Interpol tee, black glasses and beret… I hate that guy…) so the trip was definitely worth it.

On the subject of entertainment, I received my half-season Blazer tickets in the mail last week, and went to the first two pre-season games against Seattle and the Clippers. From what I saw, this may be another very long season for the Blazers fan. How could I have been so wrong in my April 15, 2004 post? In that column, next year was the current last year, which was, as we all know, quite ugly. There were some bright spots – Martell Webster looks like he’s for real, and Sebastian Telfair, if he can ever develop a consistent mid-range jump shot, has a chance to be a monster. In the meantime though, I have a feeling I’ll be witnessing a good number of growing pains from my cozy seats in section 305.

Since I’m talking about sports now, I’ll go ahead and make another bold prediction – the Oregon Ducks are going to win out. After a tough loss to USC, they have rebounded, and have begun to show the promise that a roster full of big time recruit was supposed to bring two years ago. Unfortunately, I think they are peaking at precisely the wrong time, and could still conceivably wind up in the Sun Bowl with a record of 10-1. Here’s hoping UCLA loses a few down the stretch.

Really, that pretty much sums up the last few weeks – personal growth, culture, bad basketball, good football, and hopefully this weekend, some good basketball for a change (Blazers/Kings Saturday night) and some more good football (Linfield/Puget Sound Saturday). Look for the next post to be chock full of politics, as I unleash my theories of divine intervention on the GOP and try to find the greater meaning behind this unprecedented hurricane season. (Global warming, anyone? Not so fast…)

One last thing- I just checked my email and found a note from the US Navy Reserve saying they viewed, and liked, my resume. My only question is this: is it strange that when I first saw this notice in my inbox, the first thought in my mind was of the “Royal Nayvee” Monty Python sketch?

« Older entries