Blazers forecast from June

On June 30, 2008 I wrote an email to Peter, who was busy traveling through Europe at the time, summarizing the 2008 NBA Draft and the Blazers’ outlook for the coming season - it read:

Greg Oden

We start with five picks, but end up with two draftees, one of whom will likely stay in Europe (Nicolas Batum - SF, France) - however, there is a chance he could be signed, as he does not have a guaranteed deal in Europe - I think this is a long shot. More likely, he stays in Europe for 1-2 years. We trade one second round selection (Omer Asik, C, Turkey) to Chicago for three future 2nd rounders, and another (Mike Taylor, G, NBDL - the first player drafted out of the D league, by the way) to the Clips for a 2nd rounder next year. We traded a 1st rounder (#27 - Darrell Arthur, F, Kansas) that was purchased from N.O. along with the earliest selection of this year’s 2nd Rounders (#33 - Joey Dorsey, F, MEMPHIS!) to Houston for Batum. Of course, this leaves the biggest deal - Jack and McRoberts with #13 pick Brandon Rush (there really is only room for one Brandon, after all) to Indiana for Jerryd Bayliss and Ike Diogu. Bayliss fits in immediately as Blake’s backup, but he’s got the talent to overtake Blake by mid season if everything clicks. His college play (in one season) did not display him as a true point guard, but this likely had more to do with the fact that he was Arizona’s first scoring option (19.7ppg as a Frosh). He’s got a ton of talent, and really, was a steal where the Pacers took him (#11). I think the bigger picture here is that by not trading for a veteran PG, they are committing to playing Brandon more at the point, with Rudy at SG and SF. I think we’re going to see a lot of small lineups, with any combo of Blake-Roy-Rudy/TO/Marty, or Bayless-Roy-Rudy/TO/Marty with ALdridge/Frye/Oden/Joel alternating in the frontcourt.

Names missing from the rotation: James Jones, Sergio Rodriguez, LaFrentz (duh), Diogu. First, Jones - he has opted out of his contract, and he reportedly has an offer from at least one team for 4 years/$20mil. He can’t come close to this with Portland, so he’ll be gone - probably a good thing in the long run, since Marty and Rudy will eat up those minutes anyway.

Sergio: He’s as good as gone. If there is a taker over the course of the summer, look for him to be traded. He regressed in every category from his rookie season, and now, he will not be taking part in summer league - a big, big mistake, especially since he’s no longer on the Spanish national team. My prediction has him going away for a pick or an expiring contract (possibly to Phoenix, the team that originally drafted him). I believe there is a good chance of the Blazers signing Petteri Koponen to fill the “developing point guard” roster spot. He has added a lot of bulk, is coming off a good season in Finland, and will be participating in Summer League. He is a big point guard (6′4″) and, from what I saw last year in Vegas, the kid can play.

LaFrentz: Last year of his deal - he will make sure the bench doesn’t tip up in the air when Greg and Joel get up to fill the center role. More importantly, his $12.8mil will come off the cap before the 2009 free agent class. (more importantly still, Stevie Franchise’s deal will also then be off the cap - another $19mil)

Diogu: I can’t see where he fits with this team - if he sticks, it is likely because Frye gets moved - I hope this doesn’t happen, because I love Channing’s game - especially along side Greg. More likely, he fills McRobert’s role next to LaFrentz, but - but he actually has quite a bit of talent as a low post scorer.

Here is my rotation/roster:

Starters:
PG Blake
SG Roy
SF Outlaw
PF Aldridge
C Oden

6. Webster
7. Fernandez
8. Pryzbilla
9. Bayless
10. Frye
11. Rodriguez (not in rotation)
12. Diogu (not in rotation)

13. LaFrentz
14. Koponen
15. (real long shot) Nicolas Batum or Joel Freeland.

If Fernandez has a strong showing in camp, don’t be shocked if the starting lineup has him at SG and Roy at PG, with Blake first off the bench, likely to sub for TO around the 6:00 mark. I envision a lot of small back court lineups, with Oden and Aldridge creating a deadly inside/outside combo at PF/C (and Pryzbilla/Frye doing the same thing for the 2nd unit). Bottom line - I see 55 wins. Much, much better than last year - and no less than a 6 seed. This team has a chance to be scary good - this year.

Next year, a top of the class free agent is a distinct possibility, especially if Allen gives the green light and doesn’t mind paying a luxury tax once Roy and Aldridge come up for max contracts in 2011/12, and Oden the next year.

—- Flash forward to the present —-

Tomorrow, I will write my assessment on how the season has progressed to date - so far, so good.  My predictions, not so much.